What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Germany
Energy efficiency gains from electrification can decouple industrial growth from emissions
Under the HPA scenario, electricity as a share of the industrial energy mix grows from 25% in 2023 to 35% by 2030. Final energy demand falls by 19% in 2030 and 33% in 2050 compared to 2023 levels due to the energy efficiency gains from electrification and renewable energy sources. The resulting shift to more energy efficient electricity means that industrial growth is decoupled from emissions.
Germany's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Power sector investments lag what is needed to deliver the HPA pathway
Germany’s power-sector investment needs to scale to deliver the HPA pathway, which requires renewable installed capacity to rise to 406 GW by 2030 and 784 GW by 2050, mainly from wind and solar. The investments needed to achieve this amount to EUR 27 bn per year by 2030, falling to EUR 8.5 bn per year by 2050. Although investment in renewable electricity installations has recently increased, current deployment remains insufficient: Germany’s own projections reach only 201 GW by 2030 and 640 GW by 2050, leaving a 144 GW shortfall against the HPA scenario by mid-century. Recent policy signals, including reduced support for rooftop solar and planned spending on new gas plants, risk widening rather than closing this gap.
Electrification and fossil fuel phase out enhance energy independence and security
Germany imports 70% of its fossil fuels from abroad making it vulnerable to supply and price shocks triggered by external events such as the US-Israel war on Iran. The HPA scenario outlines a pathway to energy independence and security. Under the HPA coal is essentially phased out of Germany’s primary energy by 2035, gas by 2040 and finally by 2050 as cheap renewables push all fossil fuels out of the mix. This leads to primary energy demand falling around 40% by 2035 compared to 2023 levels, stabilising around this level out to 2070, due to efficiency gains from electrification.