What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Türkiye
Roll out renewables to slash the fossil import bill, reduce prices and increase energy independence
Much of Türkiye’s growing energy demand is still met with imported fossil fuels – to the tune of USD 66 bn in 2024. The wind and solar rollout is already making a dent in that figure, but aligning with 1.5°C can further increase energy independence while cutting energy prices. In a 1.5°C compatible Turkish power grid, wind and solar would supply 78% of the country’s electricity needs, with hydro and geothermal making up most of the rest.
Türkiye's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Solar investments frontloaded, while wind investments pick up over time
Given how cheap solar is and how fast it can be deployed, it is an ideal technology to rapidly displace fossil fuels from electricity supply. Around USD 6 bn/yr, which amounts to nearly half of all investments in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, are directed to solar between 2026-2035. Wind investments pick up post-2030, with around USD 6 bn/yr directed towards wind power throughout the 2030s. In comparison, Türkiye imported USD 66 bn worth of fossil fuels in 2024.
Renewable electricity gives Turkish industry a competitive edge
Electrification would form the backbone of a 1.5°C compatible industry sector in Türkiye. Currently installed wind and solar capacity already saves the typical Turkish industrial facility USD 250,000 per year. Scaling electricity’s share in the mix up to 57% by 2035 can unlock further gains. Meanwhile, the fossil fuel phase-out would take a staggered approach, prioritising a coal phase-out by 2035, gas by 2040, and oil during the 2040s.
Electrification and modal shifts are key levers to decarbonise Turkish transport
A 1.5°C compatible transport sector would see a 28% reduction in energy demand between 2023-2035. Electrification will be key to this, with electric vehicles (EVs), buses and trains all being far more energy efficient compared to their fossil fuel-based counterparts. Switching to EVs can drastically reduce Türkiye’s oil import bill, while expanding public transport infrastructure can unclog Türkiye’s congested cities.